Enbridge line 3 pipeline

[Sundancefisher]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/0...line-3-project

Looks like more trouble for pipelines out of Canada. States want to land lock us so they get better prices and markets.

Funny times.

[Talking moose]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[srs123]

Why should this come as any surprise when our own Canadian brothers are doing the same to us. A house divided cannot stand. Let's focus on going east and west. Turdu needs to do something useful

[dmcbride]

Unreal,

'You cannot put it back in the ground': Desperate Canadian oil producers turn to transport trucks to ship crude.

http://business.financialpost.com/co...load-at-a-time

From the article,

“The uptick in truck transport also raises safety questions. There were 205 road accidents involving crude tanker trucks in Canada from 2010 through 2016, which killed 10 people, according to Transport Canada data. There were nine accidents involving crude trains, though one was the Lac Megantic, Quebec disaster in 2013, where a train hauling 72-crude cars derailed and exploded, killing 47.”

[Iskra]

Originally Posted by srs123

Why should this come as any surprise when our own Canadian brothers are doing the same to us. A house divided cannot stand. Let's focus on going east and west. Turdu needs to do something useful

Would be better if he does not do anything, he always screws up. The best thing for him to do would be to resign.

[pikeman06]

They ain't gonna truck it for long...I live right close to hardisty and there's rail options and truck options and pipe in the ground as well as storage beyond your wildest dreams and the huskies and cnrls with plenty of pipe in the ground and wells that have been producing for 20+ years that don't owe anyone a cent have been cementing the wells off and walking away. So what do you think the junior oil and gas company figures his odds are of turning a buck. Transportation costs are insane just to get it to a storage facility that has no way to move the product never mind the waiting line that the bigger players have created because they have the rights and priority to ship their product when the demand is there. It's a mess guys. We are screwed.

[sns2]

The only answer is east-west pipelines and national policy of energy self-sufficiency. It seems the worm is starting to turn a bit amongst our population. Let's hope we have the courage to elect a government that will take a radical stand toward pipelines being in the national interest. I am not a save the whales type guy to begin with, but the worst spills (Gulf Coast/Exxon Valdez) seem to have been cleaned up pretty good have they not?

[NKP]

Originally Posted by sns2

The only answer is east-west pipelines and national policy of energy self-sufficiency. It seems the worm is starting to turn a bit amongst our population. Let's hope we have the courage to elect a government that will take a radical stand toward pipelines being in the national interest. I am not a save the whales type guy to begin with, but the worst spills (Gulf Coast/Exxon Valdez) seem to have been cleaned up pretty good have they not?

I’m on board for a self-sufficiency policy. My fear is it would be implemented as a half-measure and would only serve to nationalize the resource, and forget the natinal supply side of such policy. Seeing as companies are reconsidering their presence in Ontario due to high power rates, maybe such a polivy should include hydro production too.

[Badgerbadger]

Originally Posted by sns2

The only answer is east-west pipelines and national policy of energy self-sufficiency. It seems the worm is starting to turn a bit amongst our population. Let's hope we have the courage to elect a government that will take a radical stand toward pipelines being in the national interest. I am not a save the whales type guy to begin with, but the worst spills (Gulf Coast/Exxon Valdez) seem to have been cleaned up pretty good have they not?

That's not the only answer.

Alberta needs to refine here, and work on keeping energy cheap within the province. We already have the lowest taxes in the country, so should work towards attracting value added businesses from other jurisdictions (manufacturing from Ontario, for example).

We have lots of natural resources in the province that we should leverage into their value added products, rather than ship them off elsewhere to be processed so we can buy them back.

[sns2]

Originally Posted by Badgerbadger

That's not the only answer.

Alberta needs to refine here, and work on keeping energy cheap within the province. We already have the lowest taxes in the country, so should work towards attracting value added businesses from other jurisdictions (manufacturing from Ontario, for example).

We have lots of natural resources in the province that we should leverage into their value added products, rather than ship them off elsewhere to be processed so we can buy them back.

Agreed. In a rush to get to work. Would this mean govt building the refining capacity?

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Badgerbadger]

Originally Posted by sns2

Agreed. In a rush to get to work. Would this mean govt building the refining capacity?

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

No one else is going to. Everyone wants to wall us in, and take our resources for a pittance, so we have to take the bull by the horns ourselves.

[sns2]

Originally Posted by Badgerbadger

No one else is going to. Everyone wants to wall us in, and take our resources for a pittance, so we have to take the bull by the horns ourselves.

Agreed 150%

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by sns2

Agreed. In a rush to get to work. Would this mean govt building the refining capacity?

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

No oil company is going to invest billions in a country where the governments are anti oil. And our governments would just bungle the projects like they do everything else. Trudeau would likely insist on diversity quotas for hiring employees/management for any government owned project, and the result would be as big of a mess as his cabinet. And the government's own regulations would prevent the final product from getting to market.

[Talking moose]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

No oil company is going to invest billions in a country where the governments are anti oil

I would think the USA would like the way things are rolling in Canada right now. They would be our only investors right now though. They are the ones loving that our govt and provinces are currently in turmoil. We could keep giving them oil at huge discount.

[4pointswest]

Originally Posted by sns2

Agreed. In a rush to get to work. Would this mean govt building the refining capacity?

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Phase 1 of NWR (north west refinery) is already under construction and almost complete.

This is a great step in the right direction as it will help put cash back in the pockets of Canadian producers although the biggest help to Albertans and Canadians (one day the rest of Canada will realize this) would be to build new pipe or create incremental pipe capacity to either coast giving us access to world market prices.

Until this happens Canada will be holding a big bag dog sh*t on one hand and bag full of debt in the other. The comment/picture posted from the Seattle paper above couldn't be more true. Until transfer payments get turned off to eastern provinces/BC there's no reason for anyone to act any differently.

[walking buffalo]

The Federal Liberal party had the opportunity to enshrine National Oil and Gas independence into party policy this weekend.

They decided on NO....

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Badgerbadger

That's not the only answer.

Alberta needs to refine here, and work on keeping energy cheap within the province. We already have the lowest taxes in the country, so should work towards attracting value added businesses from other jurisdictions (manufacturing from Ontario, for example).

We have lots of natural resources in the province that we should leverage into their value added products, rather than ship them off elsewhere to be processed so we can buy them back.

You miss a bigger picture issue here which negates your idea.

First thought you had was likely...let's refine all our oil and then create those jobs. Then sell the refined products for more profit for Albertans/Canadians.

Unfortunately...the logistics won't work.

There is currently no shortage of any products in the Alberta area. Therefore you would be shipping those products to the coast...currently via rail as existing pipe is full and truck is too expensive. Then those costs get tacked onto the price...however other countries with shore based refineries will have a lower margin and can sell at a cheaper price. Therefore we would not be competitive.

If we ignored the economics not working...then there is still a huge distribution chain problem that would be very expensive to fix insofar as shipping products around.

Then there is the whole cost of building a refinery. They are very expensive...prone to cost overruns and outside of expansions...very few new refineries get built.

The process to get approval here would be just as bad as a pipeline...then there are all the landowners downwind...do you want to be one. NIMBY is a huge deterrent.

While is sounds good to say refine here...it is neither feasible nor economic.

[Badgerbadger]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

You miss a bigger picture issue here which negates your idea.

First thought you had was likely...let's refine all our oil and then create those jobs. Then sell the refined products for more profit for Albertans/Canadians.

Unfortunately...the logistics won't work.

There is currently no shortage of any products in the Alberta area. Therefore you would be shipping those products to the coast...currently via rail as existing pipe is full and truck is too expensive. Then those costs get tacked onto the price...however other countries with shore based refineries will have a lower margin and can sell at a cheaper price. Therefore we would not be competitive.

If we ignored the economics not working...then there is still a huge distribution chain problem that would be very expensive to fix insofar as shipping products around.

Then there is the whole cost of building a refinery. They are very expensive...prone to cost overruns and outside of expansions...very few new refineries get built.

The process to get approval here would be just as bad as a pipeline...then there are all the landowners downwind...do you want to be one. NIMBY is a huge deterrent.

While is sounds good to say refine here...it is neither feasible nor economic.

If we are indeed swamped with cheap energy, as you say, that provides impetus for other energy intensive business to open up here. (as a side note, manufacturing in Alberta is a rapidly growing portion of our economy, already). My assumption was "use what we produce and refine, then sell the rest".

Shipping refined product uses less energy than shipping dil-bit. It's physics. It's also a value added product, keeping some of the profit created within the province. Given the price difference between our discounted stuff, and WTI there's a few bucks to be made, right there, in addition to more pipeline capacity freed up by moving a lighter product.

[srs123]

Originally Posted by Badgerbadger

That's not the only answer.

Alberta needs to refine here, and work on keeping energy cheap within the province. We already have the lowest taxes in the country, so should work towards attracting value added businesses from other jurisdictions (manufacturing from Ontario, for example).

We have lots of natural resources in the province that we should leverage into their value added products, rather than ship them off elsewhere to be processed so we can buy them back.

the problem with refining here in Alberta is that it does not solve our transportation problem. also, shipping crude is much safer than shipping gasoline and other by products which are used in many industries from lubes to plastics. Major refineries are located on coastal cities for those reasons.

pipeline is our only answer, small refineries here may be okay but it would never be economical or logistical

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Badgerbadger

If we are indeed swamped with cheap energy, as you say, that provides impetus for other energy intensive business to open up here. (as a side note, manufacturing in Alberta is a rapidly growing portion of our economy, already). My assumption was "use what we produce and refine, then sell the rest".

Shipping refined product uses less energy than shipping dil-bit. It's physics. It's also a value added product, keeping some of the profit created within the province. Given the price difference between our discounted stuff, and WTI there's a few bucks to be made, right there, in addition to more pipeline capacity freed up by moving a lighter product.

Not sure what you mean by swamped with cheap energy.

Alberta is not a big enough market to build and economically sustain a new refinery to produce more gasoline for example.



To make a refinery economic you need to build it near the consumer and near cheap transportation. That is the main reason for refineries along the coast.

If one was to build a new refinery it makes the most sense on the BC coast.

It makes zero sense to produce a bunch more gasoline here that we don't currently need. It would oversupply the market and drive the price of gasoline down. Thereby there would be no profit for the refinery...hence they would never built it.

At least in Vancouver they could ship finished product by tanker anywhere. They could also use some in the local region.

Shipping refined product does not take less energy. It takes far more energy because you need the infrastructure to deal with each one separately as needed. Transmountain batches however you can't batch all products.

Right now just selling raw to the coast would save us $100MM a day to the economy.

If there was a profit to be made building another refinery you betcha someone would build it.

What that says it don't waste money. Be smart.

[6.5 shooter]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

No oil company is going to invest billions in a country where the governments are anti oil. And our governments would just bungle the projects like they do everything else. Trudeau would likely insist on diversity quotas for hiring employees/management for any government owned project, and the result would be as big of a mess as his cabinet. And the government's own regulations would prevent the final product from getting to market.

Finally some words of wisdom.

[Jadham]

Originally Posted by Badgerbadger

That's not the only answer.

Alberta needs to refine here, and work on keeping energy cheap within the province. We already have the lowest taxes in the country, so should work towards attracting value added businesses from other jurisdictions (manufacturing from Ontario, for example).

We have lots of natural resources in the province that we should leverage into their value added products, rather than ship them off elsewhere to be processed so we can buy them back.

As an aside Alberta USED to have the lowest tax rates in country. We no longer do.

Saskatchewan and the Territories have lower (marginal) personal tax rates, while Manitoba and the Territories have lower business tax rates. It becomes more complicated & variable if one is in a middle income bracket (B.C. less tax than Alberta at $75 000 for example).

Several other provinces have equal tax rates to Alberta.

The Alberta Advantage has been dead for a few years now....

http://www.ey.com/ca/en/services/tax/tax-calculators

[ESOXangler]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Not sure what you mean by swamped with cheap energy.

Alberta is not a big enough market to build and economically sustain a new refinery to produce more gasoline for example.



To make a refinery economic you need to build it near the consumer and near cheap transportation. That is the main reason for refineries along the coast.

If one was to build a new refinery it makes the most sense on the BC coast.

It makes zero sense to produce a bunch more gasoline here that we don't currently need. It would oversupply the market and drive the price of gasoline down. Thereby there would be no profit for the refinery...hence they would never built it.

At least in Vancouver they could ship finished product by tanker anywhere. They could also use some in the local region.

Shipping refined product does not take less energy. It takes far more energy because you need the infrastructure to deal with each one separately as needed. Transmountain batches however you can't batch all products.

Right now just selling raw to the coast would save us $100MM a day to the economy.

If there was a profit to be made building another refinery you betcha someone would build it.

What that says it don't waste money. Be smart.

You’d be surprised at how much of our gas and diesel ends up riding in rail cars to Chicago and the eastern seaboard. It’s not nearly as black and white as you paint. But the media would like you to think that way.
NWR is running at less than 30% efficiency right now and has already made $240 million net since Christmas. Refinery’s make lots of money, lots and lots.

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by ESOXangler

You’d be surprised at how much of our gas and diesel ends up riding in rail cars to Chicago and the eastern seaboard. It’s not nearly as black and white as you paint. But the media would like you to think that way.
NWR is running at less than 30% efficiency right now and has already made $240 million net since Christmas. Refinery’s make lots of money, lots and lots.

Refineries make a lot of profit, if they are managed properly, a poorly run refinery, is a different story. As well, the product still needs to get to market, and our governments are making that more difficult, and more expensive.

[sns2]

When gas can jump 18 cents a litre in one day for no apparent reason, with no apparent change in input costs, those refineries make money like hell. I do not believe for a single second that they are anything but a licence to print money. We need a leader with balls who is not afraid to nationalize certain things if need be. To me, energy self-sufficiency through building the needed refineries and pipelines, is just as much in the public interest as in building a highway or a hydro dam. Right now we are at the whim and whimzie of gov'ts, both foreign and domestic, who are under the sway of big money interests. Anyone who thinks differently is both naive and deluded. Us peons are only pawns in the game. Thus we are screwed.

[elkhunter11]

The potential rail strike, is a huge reason why we need more pipelines. Even the potential can significantly effect prices of oil and fuel. As to governments getting involved with pipeline or refinery projects, it may sound good, but pretty much any time they are in control of a project, things do not turn out well. The government corruption is bad enough, but when incompetence is also present, things go from bad to worse. Can you even imagine a project where the organizers/leaders are chosen with diversity in mind, instead of on qualifications? Well if the federal government was to be involved in a major product, you can bet that the project heads will not be chosen on the basis of qualifications if Trudeau is in charge. The cost over runs would be even higher than usual, and the project would take years more to complete, costing the taxpayers billions.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

The potential rail strike, is a huge reason why we need more pipelines. Even the potential can significantly effect prices of oil and fuel. As to governments getting involved with pipeline or refinery projects, it may sound good, but pretty much any time they are in control of a project, things do not turn out well. The government corruption is bad enough, but when incompetence is also present, things go from bad to worse. Can you even imagine a project where the organizers/leaders are chosen with diversity in mind, instead of on qualifications? Well if the federal government was to be involved in a major product, you can bet that the project heads will not be chosen on the basis of qualifications if Trudeau is in charge. The cost over runs would be even higher than usual, and the project would take years more to complete, costing the taxpayers billions.

Totally.

Pipelines don't go on strike.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by sns2

When gas can jump 18 cents a litre in one day for no apparent reason, with no apparent change in input costs, those refineries make money like hell. I do not believe for a single second that they are anything but a licence to print money. We need a leader with balls who is not afraid to nationalize certain things if need be. To me, energy self-sufficiency through building the needed refineries and pipelines, is just as much in the public interest as in building a highway or a hydro dam. Right now we are at the whim and whimzie of gov'ts, both foreign and domestic, who are under the sway of big money interests. Anyone who thinks differently is both naive and deluded. Us peons are only pawns in the game. Thus we are screwed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...neries#Alberta

Alberta
Strathcona Refinery, Strathcona (Imperial Oil), 187,000 bbl/d (29,700 m3/d)
Scotford Refinery, Scotford (Shell Canada), 100,000 bbl/d (16,000 m3/d)
Edmonton Refinery, Strathcona (Suncor Energy), 142,000 bbl/d (22,600 m3/d) - formerly Petro-Canada (before Aug 2009) and historically a Gulf refinery and British American.
Sturgeon Bitumen Refinery, Alberta's Industrial Heartland (North West Redwater Partnership), 50,000 bitumen bbl/d (7,900 bitumen m3/d) - Phase 1 of North West Upgrading/Canadian Natural Upgrading)
Scotford Upgrader, Scotford (AOSP - Shell Canada 60%, Chevron Corporation 20%, Marathon Oil 20%), 250,000 bbl/d (40,000 m3/d)
Horizon Oil Sands, Fort McMurray (Canadian Natural Resources), 110,000 bitumen bbl/d (17,000 bitumen m3/d)
Long Lake, Fort McMurray (OPTI Canada Inc. 35% and Nexen Inc. 65%), 70,000 bitumen bbl/d (11,000 bitumen m3/d)
Syncrude, Fort McMurray (Canadian Oil Sands Trust, Imperial Oil, Suncor, Nexen, Conoco Phillips, Mocal Energy and Murphy Oil), 350,000 bitumen bbl/d (56,000 bitumen m3/d)
Suncor Oil Sands, Fort McMurray (Suncor), 450,000 bitumen bbl/d (72,000 bitumen m3/d)
Let's look at the Alberta companies you assume are making so much money...and clearly you think an unfair amount.

Assumptions can be checked. All those companies have financials you can look up. Google Finance is your friend.

None are making crazy rates of returns. Especially if you do a 5 year and 10 year view.

Sun

P.S. Reason for price increase is the wholesale price for gasoline is rising.

https://www.quandl.com/collections/f...soline-futures

Currently US $2.09/gallon.

Canadian Rake price...Calgary is now at $0.864/litre.

https://www.petro-canada.ca/en/rack-...k-pricing.aspx Vancouver is now $0.953/litre.


Current price factors
From those prices you add taxes. So add $0.864 plus $0.3422 X GST = $1.27. Current price is $1.30. That is 3 cents mark up.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Currently gasoline futures are $0.79/litre whole sale. Then factor in taxes. (Alberta excise tax $0.1749, Federal excise tax $0.10, Carbon levy $0.0673, 5% GST on it all. Then since gasoline is a traded north American commodity you factor in transportation costs and retail costs. Note transportation and retail have profit margins...you admitted people don't have to service you for free.

So...

Wholesale Gasoline $0.79, plus all taxes except GST $0.3422 = $1.1322 times 5% GST = $1.19. Calgary high price this minute is $1.24/liter. Now the retailer / gas station makes a profit of $0.05/liter.

[WCTHEMI]

Don't forget that it is also turnaround season. Many refineries are shutting down for maintenance and inspections. This has an effect on supply and pricing.

[Sooner]

I recall some time back Danielle Smith talking about the need for a East/West Northern energy corridor to span Ab, Sask & Manitoba and end up at Hudsons Bay. This corridor could accommodate pipeline, rail and transport. Leave B.C. & Quebec out of it. Then all 3 provinces have their own access to tide water for our resources.

Is this an option?

Crazy that the majority of Canadians see the need for our resources to get to other markets and yet a minority group on one end and a me me me province on the other end can hold the countries overall wealth and benefits from that wealth hostage.