Alberta crime

[ESOXangler]

Originally Posted by pikeman06

I would like to see the stats before the ndp government came into the scene. Noticed a real change in people's attitudes after fort mac fires, oil patch gettin a kick in the nuts etc. Probably shouldn't be talkin political stuff but when you don't hear from your leader for months at a time it doesn't give anyone much hope and as they say desperate times call for desperate measures. I love alberta it's served me well but the change in crime and respect for one another has done a 360 agreed.

Man I'm all about calling out politicans but did you just seriously try and blame the NDP for rural crime as well? Whose desperate out there? Meth heads? Theres still plenty of work if you have any employable skills. Plenty of mouth breathers out there earning more than most of the country. And how the hell can you justify stealing from another common man buy relating it to poor financial preparedness?

Unreal!

[Jack fish hunter]

Originally Posted by 223MB

Majority of these community’s are riddled with troubled aboriginals. Last time I was in cold lake I had my fishing gear stollen from the back of my truck as we ate lunch in town.

Elephant in the room right there.

[liar]

Originally Posted by ESOXangler

Man I'm all about calling out politicans but did you just seriously try and blame the NDP for rural crime as well? Whose desperate out there? Meth heads? Theres still plenty of work if you have any employable skills. Plenty of mouth breathers out there earning more than most of the country. And how the hell can you justify stealing from another common man buy relating it to poor financial preparedness?

Unreal!

had'nt you heard ? the ndp were responsible for the global crash of oil and gas prices . why wouldnt they be responsible for rural crime ? and no , im not an ndp supporter but some of the things i hear and read make me shake my head .
also , im just joking this is NOT a political comment .

[59whiskers]

Lethbridge has out of town clients coming here from other towns and cities for free enabled dope. Our down town core is not that safe and drug debri and drug dealers seem to run things here. Lots of secrecy about what is and isn't happening here. An election can't come soon enough.

[CaberTosser]

Originally Posted by liar

had'nt you heard ? the ndp were responsible for the global crash of oil and gas prices . why wouldnt they be responsible for rural crime ? and no , im not an ndp supporter but some of the things i hear and read make me shake my head .
also , im just joking this is NOT a political comment .

When the unemployment rate is growing and jobs are scarce there is usually an increase in the crime rate. Hmmm, now who has chased away 10's of thousands of jobs and instituted policies hostile to business investment that would bring about jobs.......?

Oil prices are doing quite well globally right now. Except for one single source nation, care to guess where that is?

[MountainTi]

Originally Posted by CaberTosser

When the unemployment rate is growing and jobs are scarce there is usually an increase in the crime rate. Hmmm, now who has chased away 10's of thousands of jobs and instituted policies hostile to business investment that would bring about jobs.......?

Oil prices are doing quite well globally right now. Except for one single source nation, care to guess where that is?

Bingo

[Wes_G]

The problem in Lethbridge is that homelessness has doubled in the last year. 80% of those that are homeless here are aboriginal. They get kicked off the reserve for doing drugs and where do you think they come? Know one here seems to want to address that problem though.

[rem338win]

Originally Posted by Badgerbadger

Crime has been dropping for the past 40 yrs or so, so something has been working. Perhaps the "catch and release" process is in fact being tightened up.

Uhhhhh really? Where ever you get your Koolaid it must be good.

Crime, especially violent crime, is on the rise and has been for decades.

Property crime has exploded in the last decade let alone the last 3 years.

Our system isn't working and the last Trudeau that introduced Canada to the grand idea of making criminals the victims on paper has cost our society a toll we are struggling to burden still.

Crime isn't dropping. How we keep stats is a failure.

[ESOXangler]

Originally Posted by CaberTosser

When the unemployment rate is growing and jobs are scarce there is usually an increase in the crime rate. Hmmm, now who has chased away 10's of thousands of jobs and instituted policies hostile to business investment that would bring about jobs.......?

Oil prices are doing quite well globally right now. Except for one single source nation, care to guess where that is?

Theres lots of oil and gas jobs still. Just not the type that pay 130000 a year for a grade 9 education. Most of those losers out stealing would of been showing up to work unfit and just filling a hardhat. The dead weights been cut.
And we are taking a hit on oil prices due to failures to get it to market. Even Ralph Klein wouldnt of been able to fix that. Let's actually be real here. How busy has your business been? Getting fed every night?

[CaberTosser]

Originally Posted by ESOXangler

Theres lots of oil and gas jobs still. Just not the type that pay 130000 a year for a grade 9 education. Most of those losers out stealing would of been showing up to work unfit and just filling a hardhat. The dead weights been cut.
And we are taking a hit on oil prices due to failures to get it to market. Even Ralph Klein wouldnt of been able to fix that. Let's actually be real here. How busy has your business been? Getting fed every night?

Being real is getting a fair price for our commodities and the fair share of taxes that help provide us with things like health care and other gov't services, or things like paying off the fast mounting gov't debt (PS: there was zero net debt at the beginning of the current provincial administration). While I agree that lots of dead weight such as those that wear Ed Hardy and Affliction T shirts were the first to be laid off, I do know some decent folks who could benefit from some jobs coming in. Even though those dead weight characters weren't all that productive, society was still better off when they were employed, paying taxes and not stealing honest folks blind. Foods on my table but I do see some of my clients having to scrimp when the plumbing or heating calamity that necessitated calling me came up and I wind up trimming margins.... Not much for luxuries and its been a number of years since we had a family holiday that didn't involve attending a funeral.

[liar]

Originally Posted by ESOXangler

Theres lots of oil and gas jobs still. Just not the type that pay 130000 a year for a grade 9 education. Most of those losers out stealing would of been showing up to work unfit and just filling a hardhat. The dead weights been cut.
And we are taking a hit on oil prices due to failures to get it to market. Even Ralph Klein wouldnt of been able to fix that. Let's actually be real here. How busy has your business been? Getting fed every night?

yup , and yes the global price of oil has been creeping up since the crash but our biggest customer is south of the border . with todays technology we have gotten very good at extracting natural resources so our biggest customer is not needing as much of our product so our prices have stayed suppressed . this is not the fault of ANY provincial government . the only way the oil and gas industry will show substantial growth is with access to the world market , which is a challenge when we are a land locked province .
western canadian select crude is at $14.71 this morning
(oilprice.com). i am pretty sure this has a lot more bearing on the amount of activity in the oil patch than our current provincial climate . i could be wrong .

[58thecat]

Originally Posted by Talking moose

More so it’s a transient town.

Not since the patch dried up.....just got the warm weather spill over from surrounding areas but the cold snap sends them home....sad but very true.

[Badgerbadger]

Originally Posted by rem338win

Uhhhhh really? Where ever you get your Koolaid it must be good.

Crime, especially violent crime, is on the rise and has been for decades.

Property crime has exploded in the last decade let alone the last 3 years.

Our system isn't working and the last Trudeau that introduced Canada to the grand idea of making criminals the victims on paper has cost our society a toll we are struggling to burden still.

Crime isn't dropping. How we keep stats is a failure.

Not really,but if you don't agree with methods used, there's no real use in talking with you unless you yourself are a statistician. Are you a statistician?

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by Badgerbadger

Not really,but if you don't agree with methods used, there's no real use in talking with you unless you yourself are a statistician. Are you a statistician?

Look at post #26, are you going to dispute those numbers?

[Badgerbadger]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

Look at post #26, are you going to dispute those numbers?

Percentage increase is of limited use. If crime in an area is typically 1 crime per year, and one year there are 2 crimes, it's increased by 100%. However, if there is 1 crime per 10 000 people, typically, and it goes up to 2 crimes per 10 000 people that indicates magnitude, in a more accurate manner.

This is useful in analysis of magnitude of crime change in Canada/provinces/areas.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=3510017701

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by Badgerbadger

Percentage increase is of limited use. If crime in an area is typically 1 crime per year, and one year there are 2 crimes, it's increased by 100%. However, if there is 1 crime per 10 000 people, typically, and it goes up to 2 crimes per 10 000 people that indicates magnitude, in a more accurate manner.

This is useful in analysis of magnitude of crime change in Canada/provinces/areas.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=3510017701

Using your own link, the number of actual incidents, as well as the number of incidents per population have both increased over that time period. When you look at the stats for Alberta, the increase is significant over that time period.

[Badgerbadger]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

Using your own link, the number of actual incidents, as well as the number of incidents per population have both increased over that time period. When you look at the stats for Alberta, the increase is significant over that time period.

Yup.

I wonder why. What could possibly have been going on in the world to affect an oil driven economy? Or was this just because society is going downhill in general?

If only there were some method to tell, eh?

[altex]

I agreed that we need more jail . But we need hard labor to come back , the criminal have it too good in today's jail.

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by Badgerbadger

Yup.

I wonder why. What could possibly have been going on in the world to affect an oil driven economy? Or was this just because society is going downhill in general?

If only there were some method to tell, eh?

Regardless of why crime is increasing, the fact remains, it is increasing, contrary to your previous statement.

[Anvil1010]

Originally Posted by altex

I agreed that we need more jail . But we need hard labor to come back , the criminal have it too good in today's jail.

And we need Capital Punishment back.

[ReconWilly]

Originally Posted by Anvil1010

And we need Capital Punishment back.

I would love it if judge's sentenced offender's to be their victim's butler's just like on TV.

[sk270]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

Using your own link, the number of actual incidents, as well as the number of incidents per population have both increased over that time period. When you look at the stats for Alberta, the increase is significant over that time period.

I am not a statistician but I am trying to understand the crime rate statistics. Are you sure that the increase per 100,000 population is significant? It seems quite small to me.

It is also interesting to expand the reference period on that link. The overall crime rate has gone down since 2010 by a factor that appears to me to be significant. Again, I am not a statistician.

I have no ideas about the causes of these changes in crime rate. I'm just trying to determine how large a change is needed for significance.

Thanks.

[Badgerbadger]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

Regardless of why crime is increasing, the fact remains, it is increasing, contrary to your previous statement.

Blips aren't trends.I thought you might be able to figure that out for yourself, but apparently not.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...015001-eng.htm

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by Badgerbadger

Blips aren't trends.I thought you might be able to figure that out for yourself, but apparently not.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...015001-eng.htm

That data is from five years ago, the other link you posted is current, and shows that things have changed since then. Wait five more years , and then you will know if it is a five year blip, or a ten year trend.

[270person]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

Regardless of why crime is increasing, the fact remains, it is increasing, contrary to your previous statement.

I thought incidences of "violent crime" were down quite a bit, and if gang activity were taken out of the equation it would be by a lot.

Property crime in rural areas tho? That has to be well up. Pretty good reasons for it too I'd think, not the least of which being, that we're running out of rural. Not much can be done about that.

[MountainTi]

Originally Posted by ESOXangler

Theres lots of oil and gas jobs still.





And we are taking a hit on oil prices due to failures to get it to market. Even Ralph Klein wouldnt of been able to fix that

And how exactly do you figure that? I seriously beg too differ.
Job market sure isn't very strong around this area, and besides forestry, it has always been oil/gas driven
Downtown Calgary has been hit very hard, and isn't showing great signs of recovery yet. So not sure where these "lots" of jobs are




And the second comment, I expect Ralphie may have been a little more "persuasive" than to just quit buying wine from BC for a short time to get a pipeline to tidewater

[sk270]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

That data is from five years ago, the other link you posted is current, and shows that things have changed since then. Wait five more years , and then you will know if it is a five year blip, or a ten year trend.

The numerical data are available on Badger's original linked site by changing the reference period. The rate dropped overall until 2013. However, there were upticks in 2013 and 2015 of over 2% each. The more recent increases have been less than 1% year-to-year. The rate for 2017 is lower than for 2012 and almost the same as 2013.

If five years of data show a blip and ten years are needed to show a trend, then these data show a trend to reduced crime in Alberta. On the other hand, I'm not sure these time periods are meaningful or how we separate a blip from a trend.

Can any social scientists clarify this for me? Thanks.

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by sk270

The numerical data are available on Badger's original linked site by changing the reference period. The rate dropped overall until 2013. However, there were upticks in 2013 and 2015 of over 2% each. The more recent increases have been less than 1% year-to-year. The rate for 2017 is lower than for 2012 and almost the same as 2013.

If five years of data show a blip and ten years are needed to show a trend, then these data show a trend to reduced crime in Alberta. On the other hand, I'm not sure these time periods are meaningful or how we separate a blip from a trend.

Can any social scientists clarify this for me? Thanks.

If you use the first link he posted, and look at the last five years for Canada as a whole the increase is smaller but if you look at Alberta, Saskatchewan or Manitoba individually, the increases are much greater.

[sk270]

You are correct elkhunter. Maybe we need to be asking why the rates are so high in those three provinces.

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by sk270

You are correct elkhunter. Maybe we need to be asking why the rates are so high in those three provinces.

Could it be the larger percentage of rural residents? Rural crime is really on the increase.