US Covid19 pandemic blowing up...how bad will it get?

[CMichaud]

Corrected the numbers for you...

However, there are currently 559 active cases with 41 in hospital, 9 in ICU.


What drives me crazy is the daily media dump of new cases without telling us the number tested for the same 24 hour period. The numbers are almost meaningless if there is no context.

The province needs to get busy - test, test, test!

Near as I can tell, the current infection rate in Alberta is approximately 0.5-1%. I base this on comparing the recent daily volume of tests to daily positive results.

That implies 22,500-45,000 cases in the province based on a 4.5 million population.

If we look at the overall positive results to testing (which I assume has bias due to testing initially having a focus on high risk):

8067/389,687 = 2.07% ( or around 90,000-100,000 Albertans)

The WHO initially said masks were not a good idea. With the change to their policy and increased use of masks, I am not sure if there is available data to corroborate a resulting decline in spread. Again, more testing is required to validate I would suspect.

Originally Posted by Fisherdan

Deena Hinshaw has repeatedly said most people will endure mild symptoms.

CDC says 4.9% death rate? Let’s forget about cdc for a minute and just look at Alberta. Why?

1. Everyone on this forum is familiar with how things have gone in this province.
2. We’ve had more testing than anywhere in Canada, and perhaps North America since day 1.

So far, 8067 confirmed cases in Alberta with 154 deaths. That’s a 1.9% mortality rate. However, there are currently 559 active cases with 41 in ICU. Not everyone in ICU will make it. Suppose 20 don’t... that bumps the mortality rate in Alberta to 2.2%.

A big thing to consider however, is that 8067 confirmed cases does not mean 8067 total cases. We don’t know what the total case numbers are, but it is certainly much higher than 8067.

Not trying to poo-poo the virus, but the facts, at least here in Alberta where our health care has done a tremendous job, don’t jive with some of the scarier numbers and headlines that are floating around out there.

[ward]

Originally Posted by 58thecat

but still some don't get it

3 states governors are now back tracking and closing things up.....didn't take proper precautions.....didn't close down...waited too long...opened up too early and bam....flooded hospitals....infected numbers up and yup the death rate too....go figure eh!

we gotta look past our noses periodically to see just how things can turn around in a heartbeat....

The small amount I have been out and about, I have come to the conclusion that most people here have moved on. Not many masks to be seen and ignoring distancing. Our behaviours are not much better than our neighbours down south. If we want to avoid another shut down that many Southern states are currently going through, we have to get it together.

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by 58thecat

but still some don't get it

3 states governors are now back tracking and closing things up.....didn't take proper precautions.....didn't close down...waited too long...opened up too early and bam....flooded hospitals....infected numbers up and yup the death rate too....go figure eh!

we gotta look past our noses periodically to see just how things can turn around in a heartbeat....

Mass gatherings and rioting likely had nothing to do with it.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by Fisherdan

Deena Hinshaw has repeatedly said most people will endure mild symptoms.

CDC says 4.9% death rate? Let’s forget about cdc for a minute and just look at Alberta. Why?

1. Everyone on this forum is familiar with how things have gone in this province.
2. We’ve had more testing than anywhere in Canada, and perhaps North America since day 1.

So far, 8067 confirmed cases in Alberta with 154 deaths. That’s a 1.9% mortality rate. However, there are currently 559 active cases with 41 in ICU. Not everyone in ICU will make it. Suppose 20 don’t... that bumps the mortality rate in Alberta to 2.2%.

A big thing to consider however, is that 8067 confirmed cases does not mean 8067 total cases. We don’t know what the total case numbers are, but it is certainly much higher than 8067.

Not trying to poo-poo the virus, but the facts, at least here in Alberta where our health care has done a tremendous job, don’t jive with some of the scarier numbers and headlines that are floating around out there.

Your numbers look correct, and I agree with you that Alberta and Canada for the most part has done a good job at holding this outbreak at bay. That's what can happen when decisions are made based on science vs. politics. There are however a few people in Canada that think the entire issue has been over blown and that we should go back to how we lived in 2019. It's important to point out the dangerous flaws in that thinking, because this is going to take a long time to get under control, and people want things to happen instantly these days.

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by chuck

Mass gatherings and rioting likely had nothing to do with it.

I can't help but laugh but I hear someone insisting that the riots and demonstrations didn't contribute to the spike in covid cases.

[Fisherdan]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

So what you are effectively saying is to treat the virus seriously, keep infections down so hospitals are not flooded and in turn that keeps the death rate far lower like in Canada when compared that doing nothing or minimal efforts like in the US currently?

Yes...some people can’t get it through there heads that the reason why it’s not horrible in Canada is because of effort made.

It is not occurring less deadly on its own but rather due to substantial efforts to contain.

Yes, but I’m also saying that we have to be careful about where we get our numbers. If you look at Ontario numbers, they appear to have a 7% mortality rate. Quebec is 10%. This is due to the lack of testing that their provinces were doing, especially early on. There are comments on this thread suggesting that 1 in 12 or 20 people will die. That is bad information that doesn’t do anybody any service.

Stay safe.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by chuck

Mass gatherings and rioting likely had nothing to do with it.

Actually you are partially correct. Mass gatherings and rioting are going to bite them in the butt, but the current increases correlates to the loosening of rules from their Memorial day holiday, pre protests and government rallies. It takes a substancial time period from getting coughed on til you start feeling kinda tired and achy and actually seek medical advice. Like wise the ICU admissions and death rate follows weeks later again. The southern states have just started to shut down again, but the horse has already left the barn.

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by chuck

Mass gatherings and rioting likely had nothing to do with it.

I’d say doing regular day to day things people still stayed aware of social distancing. Riots and protests, I think they’ll get what’s coming.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by Fisherdan

Yes, but I’m also saying that we have to be careful about where we get our numbers. If you look at Ontario numbers, they appear to have a 7% mortality rate. Quebec is 10%. This is due to the lack of testing that their provinces were doing, especially early on. There are comments on this thread suggesting that 1 in 12 or 20 people will die. That is bad information that doesn’t do anybody any service.

Stay safe.

Please don't try and put words in my mouth or insinuate something by manipulating what I said by omitting important parts of what I said.

You left out the part of my example where I said 12 people go to a BBQ, 1 person is infected, and they infect the other 11. That implies that all 12 people are infected.

The death rate is related to infections and mortality.

Not to infection rates throughout the entire population- those are 2 very different things.

Either way …. What I said was factual, and supported by the government's own statistics - both for the CDC in the US, and the Canadian Government's website for Canada.

1 of 12, in Canada, who contract the disease, are currently dying.

That's over 8% of the people in Canada who tested positive for Covid, have been dying.

That's a fact.

If you don't want to deal in factual information, deny the governments own reporting, and choose to purposely misrepresent what was said you are out of line with reality.

This was not BAD information, it's either you are purposefully misrepresenting it or you have BAD reading comprehension skills - this one is not on me - it's 100% on you. Perhaps YOU should think about what doesn't do anyone any good.

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Actually you are partially correct. Mass gatherings and rioting are going to bite them in the butt, but the current increases correlates to the loosening of rules from their Memorial day holiday, pre protests and government rallies. It takes a substancial time period from getting coughed on til you start feeling kinda tired and achy and actually seek medical advice. Like wise the ICU admissions and death rate follows weeks later again. The southern states have just started to shut down again, but the horse has already left the barn.

Memorial Day and the riots were one day apart. Hmmm.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by chuck

Memorial Day and the riots were one day apart. Hmmm.

Let me be more clear. Any social gatherings will increase the spread. That's just a fact. The US is just in the beginning of a huge increase and it's not going to end anytime soon. Thank god the border is closed (and probably will be for many months to come).

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by 270person

Context please. Some jobs, not people Chuck, but since you put it that way, based on some of your comments it would seem you consider those 75+, in care facilities to be fairly non-essential.

The context is exactly the same as yours. Jobs.

[35 whelen]

Wait till after the long weekend there

Sent from my SM-G930W8 using Tapatalk

[bessiedog]

Originally Posted by Osky

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...to-all-causes/

Here you go.

Osky

How bout u go over your chosen stat there......

Do you see the problem with it...?


I certainly do.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by 35 whelen

Wait till after the long weekend there

Sent from my SM-G930W8 using Tapatalk

That will be telling. If there is a spike I'm pretty confident that there will be a back up in how things are done. Re-closures of restaurants, and travel restrictions will be back on.

[MrDave]

I had a bus driver, coincidentally named Darwin, who always said"If you want to see how stupid people are, just give them the chance to prove it." The US proves it.

The 2 best choices for president were Clinton and Trump. Think about that. Those 2? Seems like Mother Earth is fixing stupid.

Don't think the death rate is enough to worry about, wait until it hits a person you know. It's only a small amount until it hits close to you. Or until it's no longer a small number.

[walking buffalo]

Originally Posted by EZM

1 of 12, in Canada, who contract the disease, are currently dying.

That's over 8% of the people in Canada who tested positive for Covid, have been dying.

That's a fact.

I had no idea that Canada was doing such a horrible job compared to the rest of the World.

A Canadian is 60% more likely to die when infected with Covid than the world or USA average.

The USA is par with the World average, 5%.





Canada cases
Updated 30 Jun at 11:11 AM local
Confirmed
104,455

Deaths
8,591



Global cases
Updated 30 Jun at 11:11 AM local
Confirmed
10,302,867

Deaths
505,518

USA
Confirmed
2,356,657

Deaths
122,247

[Fisherdan]

Originally Posted by EZM

Please don't try and put words in my mouth or insinuate something by manipulating what I said by omitting important parts of what I said.

You left out the part of my example where I said 12 people go to a BBQ, 1 person is infected, and they infect the other 11. That implies that all 12 people are infected.

The death rate is related to infections and mortality.

Not to infection rates throughout the entire population- those are 2 very different things.

Either way …. What I said was factual, and supported by the government's own statistics - both for the CDC in the US, and the Canadian Government's website for Canada.

1 of 12, in Canada, who contract the disease, are currently dying.

That's over 8% of the people in Canada who tested positive for Covid, have been dying.

That's a fact.

If you don't want to deal in factual information, deny the governments own reporting, and choose to purposely misrepresent what was said you are out of line with reality.

This was not BAD information, it's either you are purposefully misrepresenting it or you have BAD reading comprehension skills - this one is not on me - it's 100% on you. Perhaps YOU should think about what doesn't do anyone any good.

Please don’t get bent out of shape. Just trying to have a discussion.

Look at the Alberta numbers. This province has done a great job with testing, unlike most jurisdictions. The Alberta numbers simply tell a different story.

[CMichaud]

Is it just me or did the media largely skip over this story...

An Edmonton-based lab is readying two COVID-19 vaccine candidates for clinical human trials this summer.

The potential vaccines displayed "really potent antibody response" when used in animal models, explained the University of Alberta’s Dr. John Lewis.

https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/made-in-...mans-1.5001596

[Pathfinder76]

As my Grandfather used to say, “people die in bed”.

[Osky]

Originally Posted by bessiedog

How bout u go over your chosen stat there......

Do you see the problem with it...?


I certainly do.

I posted the numbers to show what I was referring to. You have a problem with it how so?

Osky

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by MrDave

I had a bus driver, coincidentally named Darwin, who always said"If you want to see how stupid people are, just give them the chance to prove it." The US proves it.

The 2 best choices for president were Clinton and Trump. Think about that. Those 2? Seems like Mother Earth is fixing stupid.

Don't think the death rate is enough to worry about, wait until it hits a person you know. It's only a small amount until it hits close to you. Or until it's no longer a small number.

Great. Now I need to rematch the movie Idiocracy. .

[Bergerboy]

So far the highest amount of occupied ICU beds in Alberta was about 22 and they are supposed to have 1081 put together by now. Since the only surefire way to put this thing to bed is herd immunity, we need to increase these numbers among the low risk population to get ahead of this thing. I think a 50% to 60% ICU occupancy rate should be implemented. This is our best solution in my opinion.

[Pathfinder76]

Sweden is looking good now.

[Fisherdan]

Originally Posted by CMichaud

Corrected the numbers for you...

However, there are currently 559 active cases with 41 in hospital, 9 in ICU.


What drives me crazy is the daily media dump of new cases without telling us the number tested for the same 24 hour period. The numbers are almost meaningless if there is no context.

The province needs to get busy - test, test, test!

Near as I can tell, the current infection rate in Alberta is approximately 0.5-1%. I base this on comparing the recent daily volume of tests to daily positive results.

That implies 22,500-45,000 cases in the province based on a 4.5 million population.

If we look at the overall positive results to testing (which I assume has bias due to testing initially having a focus on high risk):

8067/389,687 = 2.07% ( or around 90,000-100,000 Albertans)

The WHO initially said masks were not a good idea. With the change to their policy and increased use of masks, I am not sure if there is available data to corroborate a resulting decline in spread. Again, more testing is required to validate I would suspect.

Thanks for correcting that.

Good points on testing and masks.

[58thecat]

Originally Posted by Bergerboy

So far the highest amount of occupied ICU beds in Alberta was about 22 and they are supposed to have 1081 put together by now. Since the only surefire way to put this thing to bed is herd immunity, we need to increase these numbers among the low risk population to get ahead of this thing. I think a 50% to 60% ICU occupancy rate should be implemented. This is our best solution in my opinion.

only sure fire way...based on your lab testing....

[nick0danger]

Originally Posted by Bergerboy

So far the highest amount of occupied ICU beds in Alberta was about 22 and they are supposed to have 1081 put together by now. Since the only surefire way to put this thing to bed is herd immunity, we need to increase these numbers among the low risk population to get ahead of this thing. I think a 50% to 60% ICU occupancy rate should be implemented. This is our best solution in my opinion.

You first, start going around liking poles in public places, and makes sure you let us know how it goes!

[58thecat]

Originally Posted by Fisherdan

Please don’t get bent out of shape. Just trying to have a discussion.

Look at the Alberta numbers. This province has done a great job with testing, unlike most jurisdictions. The Alberta numbers simply tell a different story.

for the most part we listen to direction....maybe not so much in Edmonton and Cowtown but that's another ball of wax....that'll bit'em in the butt too.

[58thecat]

Originally Posted by nick0danger

You first, start going around liking poles in public places, and makes sure you let us know how it goes!

ok so that's how he does his testing....didn't know.

[270person]

Originally Posted by chuck

Mass gatherings and rioting likely had nothing to do with it.

Rioting already written off as a spike cause. Indoor mass gatherings yes. Like Trumptys Tulsa rally.