Been watching MLS

[omega50]

Been checking MLS listings for about 2 months watching for signs of housing trends in Calgary, Edmonton and Fort Mac

I was interested to note that 253 houses have been listed for sale in Edmonton Since April 1/2015
Calgary sits at about 153 listed since yesterday as well.
I screened out condos and apartments and multi family homes. If I include those then Edmonton has avg about 220 new listings a day and Calgary avg 143 new listings a day.

I am interested to see at what point the over supply affects prices and signals a Buyers Market

If I remove the date criteria it shows there are 2274 single family homes currently for sale in Calgary
Where as in Edmonton there are currently 3780 single family homes for sale.

I am curious if Edmonton typically has so much more single family home supply

[jungleboy]

Originally Posted by omega50

Been checking MLS listings for about 2 months watching for signs of housing trends in Calgary, Edmonton and Fort Mac

I was interested to note that 253 houses have been listed for sale in Edmonton Since April 1/2015
Calgary sits at about 153 listed since yesterday as well.
I screened out condos and apartments and multi family homes. If I include those then Edmonton has avg about 220 new listings a day and Calgary avg 143 new listings a day.

I am interested to see at what point the over supply affects prices and signals a Buyers Market

If I remove the date criteria it shows there are 2274 single family homes currently for sale in Calgary
Where as in Edmonton there are currently 3780 single family homes for sale.

I am curious if Edmonton typically has so much more single family home supply

I'm not so sure you are going to find that so called buyers market any time soon.

[nick0danger]

Cousin sold his place in calgary in 2 weeks for more than asking price.

[arcticcathinda]

Also, there are a number of homes that never even make it into the MLS database before they sell. My current house for example was purchased by us before MLS even heard about it.

[Ricktye]

I too have been watching the market to see what's going to happen... I don't agree with jungleboy because they (whoever they are?) are forecasting the slump/drop in oil prices to be a long term thing, not just a hiccup. Again, I'm not sure if I agree that it's going to last the 5 year that they're speculating, but even if it's 1/2 of that I'm sure we'll be seeing a lot of slow down and layoffs.. Will those affected be able to hang on to their homes and stick it out? I wish I had a crystal ball, but no such luck. I think we're seeing a lot putting their homes on the market right now to try and beat the upcoming rush, but that's pure speculation on my behalf. Will it be worse than the early 80's like they're saying, I don't know but i wouldn't doubt it...

Like the poster above said, his cousin got his house on the market before the drop and got a good price. I, for one, doubt that trend will continue.. Nor do the bankers it seem if you go by the headlines...

Originally Posted by jungleboy

I'm not so sure you are going to find that so called buyers market any time soon.

[Pudelpointer]

How many "units" are there total in Calgary or Edmonton? 250,000? So ~1% is on the market.... I think you will need a lot more sellers than that to make it a buyer's market.

[omega50]

Originally Posted by Pudelpointer

How many "units" are there total in Calgary or Edmonton? 250,000? So ~1% is on the market.... I think you will need a lot more sellers than that to make it a buyer's market.

Comparing the 2 markets is difficult in that equation because over 25% of the available housing supply lists at over $1,000,000 in Calgary.
Just over 7% of the available housing supply in Edmonton is listed over $1,000,000

To me a buyers market could occur whenever there is much larger supply then demand and consumer confidence is low.

[wildwoods]

I don't believe we were in a housing boom. It was solid, steady growth. The big builders have learned an important lesson from 2008 and have been building way less specs and focusing more on the pre-sold. I don't believe we're in for a huge dip in housing prices. The inventory numbers, while probably growing, are still sustainable right now. There's a different feeling of optimism among the builders when I have met with the construction managers and executives. It's barber shop talk like this that greatly affects the housing markets (both ways).
That all said, there's certainly deals to be had at the present moment. Good on ya Omega for digging. Best way to buy anything in my opinion: patience!

[raab]

Originally Posted by Ricktye

I too have been watching the market to see what's going to happen... I don't agree with jungleboy because they (whoever they are?) are forecasting the slump/drop in oil prices to be a long term thing, not just a hiccup. Again, I'm not sure if I agree that it's going to last the 5 year that they're speculating, but even if it's 1/2 of that I'm sure we'll be seeing a lot of slow down and layoffs.. Will those affected be able to hang on to their homes and stick it out? I wish I had a crystal ball, but no such luck. I think we're seeing a lot putting their homes on the market right now to try and beat the upcoming rush, but that's pure speculation on my behalf. Will it be worse than the early 80's like they're saying, I don't know but i wouldn't doubt it...

Like the poster above said, his cousin got his house on the market before the drop and got a good price. I, for one, doubt that trend will continue.. Nor do the bankers it seem if you go by the headlines...

I'm not to worried about house prices here in Edmonton. Calgary could see a drop though due to it's workforce being more reliant on oil. IMO the house prices won't come down until interest rates go up.

[Dewey Cox]

Don't people normally start listing their real estate in the spring time?

[wildwoods]

Originally Posted by Dewey Cox

Don't people normally start listing their real estate in the spring time?

And buying, yes. This quarter will be a telltale sign of sales for the rest of the year. I'm hoping they're strong!

[Talking moose]

Originally Posted by raab

I'm not to worried about house prices here in Edmonton. Calgary could see a drop though due to it's workforce being more reliant on oil. IMO the house prices won't come down until interest rates go up.

You figure the Calgary workforce is more reliant on oil than Edm? Could be, I'm not sure, why do you say this?

[Etownguy]

I've been keeping track of the MLS listings in my Edmonton neighbourhood since November. I haven't seen a great deal of change (up or down) in the asking price even when adjusted on a square footage basis.

There should be a lot more volume on the market in the coming months (as is normal for spring) and I think that will tell the tale of whether we are in for a downturn or not.

[raab]

Originally Posted by Talking moose

You figure the Calgary workforce is more reliant on oil than Edm? Could be, I'm not sure, why do you say this?

Calgary is more white collar, it is also overpriced. With the drop in oil price I won't be surprised to see a lot of engineers and safety people being laid off, as projects are put on hold or cancelled.

Edmonton is more blue collar and has a more diverse workforce which is a bit less dependent on oil prices. Dont get me wrong Edmonton is slowing down, but I think Calgary will be hit harder then Edmonton if oil stays down.

[Buzz]

March 2015 compared to March 2014 in Calgary:
http://www.findcalgary.ca/page_content-19.html

Average price down in Calgary 2.19%.
Total sales down 28.17%

Keeping tabs on the 'credit bubble', has been a personal hobby of mine since the last "dip".
Here's an interesting article from a few days ago: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-s...off-the-cliff/

A house is a place to live.....allocate your money appropriately. Pay off your debts.

[colroggal]

Calgary won't see a buyer's market until the rv parks around town empty out. And there's more to Calgary - and Alberta - than oil & gas. Seems only the folks in o&g see our province as a one-trick pony.

Colin

[greylynx]

Very interesting post Omega.

Oil futures are supposed to be going down to about $35/barrel within the next month.

Let us AO analysts watch what happens in real estate as things get worse for a lot of people.

[rugatika]

I checked out the kijiji rental listings a week or two ago just for kicks. Over 10 pages of rentals posted in a 24hr period. Seems like a lot to me...been a while since I was looking for a rental though, so I can't remember if that's normal or not...pretty sure it's on the high side.

[Matt L.]

I'm hoping housing prices drop to realistic levels by this summer or next summer here. Getting tired of this pos apartment.

[benamen]

One lawyer in our area has indicated that his mortgage business has dropped 75% already.

[chasingtail]

I don't see how prices can't drop. Listings are way up and sales way down since same time last year. This is just the start, 10's of thousand of people with 6 figure incomes are laid off or will have very little work this year. These people could barely afford a house when making good money. I'll predict market will be down 10% this year and if oil doesn't turn around in 2016 expect another 20% off.
Lower Incomes, higher unemployment, higher taxes, less people moving to Alberta, Easteners moving back home, homes were already overpriced. Worst possible time to buy a house right now. It's great to have a positive attitude but some people are living in la la land.

[spirit4u]

I was talking with my broker Thursday. She informed me that lending in FtMc money and other northern places has slowed to a trickle. Basically lenders are very prudent now. To me this makes people stuck with what they have even if they want to drop their house price to get out. It does make for an interesting market to watch and everyones perspective.

[jhillock]

Originally Posted by chasingtail

I don't see how prices can't drop. Listings are way up and sales way down since same time last year. This is just the start, 10's of thousand of people with 6 figure incomes are laid off or will have very little work this year. These people could barely afford a house when making good money. I'll predict market will be down 10% this year and if oil doesn't turn around in 2016 expect another 20% off.
Lower Incomes, higher unemployment, higher taxes, less people moving to Alberta, Easteners moving back home, homes were already overpriced. Worst possible time to buy a house right now. It's great to have a positive attitude but some people are living in la la land.

I couldn't have said it better myself. Not to mention Canada globally has the most over valued real estate prices, I believe reading at some point over the last year or so one analyst had mentioned up to 200%.

What say everyone to the fact that if interest rates go on a rise that some existing mortgage holders would struggle to refinance even if a 1 or 2 point increase happened as the time to renew their term arrives? Time to sell? Not a great idea when the market is already starting to be saturated with listings. And when high listings and much lower sale rates are occurring, this tends to indicate a buyers market is on the way. It's all supply and demand. High supply, low demand leads to lower prices. The only reason I believe the odd listing going over list price recently is due to either a very desirable neighborhood at an attractive price, or people just aren't paying attention to what's going on around them.

[edmhunter]

I own a company where I manage assets for banks. I handle Foreclosures and repossess and remarket assets all across Canada.

If you are looking at buying a home I would hold off for another 6 months minimum in Alberta, because the prices are going to drop quickly with all of the layoffs in the oil industry IMO.

Right now in Leduc, there are a lot of homes in Foreclosure and it's only getting worse, so this will drive the prices down and because they have been hyper-inflated since 2006.

[bessiedog]

..... And herei thought we were gonna argue bout soccer.....

Sigh

Carry on

[jhillock]

Originally Posted by Buzz

March 2015 compared to March 2014 in Calgary:
http://www.findcalgary.ca/page_content-19.html

Average price down in Calgary 2.19%.
Total sales down 28.17%

Keeping tabs on the 'credit bubble', has been a personal hobby of mine since the last "dip".
Here's an interesting article from a few days ago: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-s...off-the-cliff/

A house is a place to live.....allocate your money appropriately. Pay off your debts.

Thanks Buzz, very interesting read (second link). I especially like the last paragraph.

[Arty]

The most meaningful stats will be year-over-year, although when the oil/gas business has slammed on the brakes this hard you'll see significant trends from one month to the next as well.

Interest rates have never been this low in history. Both because of direct temporary government intervention in lowering prime rates, and because of massive amounts of excessive QE liquidity sloshing around the world which industry didn't need. Except that U.S. drillers which took on as much cheap debt as they could get their hands on, to take advantage of high crude prices.

But as QE has stopped and U.S. industry has picked up, the demand for money will increase a little so international bond-market rates will increase. The U.S. Fed will try to set prime to follow where that is going. The Cdn government has no choice but to follow sooner or later. So mortgages will climb off the floor and normalize back up towards where they are supposed to be.

All that excess, QE driven cheap debt was a big reason for the biggest increase in hydrocarbon production in the U.S. in decades. That overproduction is finally choking itself off as crude prices have dropped. It's killed off a lot of jobs too.

Both job losses and higher rates when people can least afford it will kill this huge gasbag of excessive housing prices.

[Johnny Huntnfish]

Personally I've been watching Kijiji for cheap toys.....quads, boats, dirt bike, sxs's.....these are usually the first things that a guy gets rid of. And the oilboys love their toys...and they like em brand new so the market should be flooded eventually here.

[Matt L.]

Originally Posted by Johnny Huntnfish

Personally I've been watching Kijiji for cheap toys.....quads, boats, dirt bike, sxs's.....these are usually the first things that a guy gets rid of. And the oilboys love their toys...and they like em brand new so the market should be flooded eventually here.

You too eh?

[justsomeguy]

Been watching the message board at work for rentals in Fort McMurray......what a year ago was going for $2400-2800 (2 bedroom basement apt in newer house) is now going for $1600-2000, and they're offering free months rent and other incentives to draw renters in!!!! Investors will be the first to flinch, dumping their un-rented or low rent places before their investment drops any more.

Following that will be those whose severence packages are about to run out if oil stays down. If it's down over a year we're talking 20% easy.....in 09 it went down 10-15% and that was only a blip. Problem is going to be there are so many folks who will be both upside down in their mortgage AND financed to the top with new vehicles and toys......while many relish the opportunity for cheap toys I'd rather see folks working. The life of a boom and bust resource industry.